The B1G Mess (Part I)

With seven teams still in the Big Ten Championship hunt and only 3 weeks left, I thought it was necessary to dissect the conference standings and make some predictions for who will make it to Indianapolis. I focused on nine of the twelve Big Ten teams, but the other three have an outside shot at making waves in this confusing yet competitive race to Indianapolis.

The three teams that I've left out are Indiana (Bye, @MSU, Purdue), Northwestern (Rice, Minnesota, Michigan State), and Minnesota (Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois). Obviously, the Northwestern/MSU and Minnesota/Wisconsin games could change the outcome of the Big Ten; but I think the favorites will win in those games. One scary thing is that Wisconsin heads to Minneapolis this weekend, and the Badgers haven't won on the road yet this year. I would look for them to power their way to a big win though. Northwestern could beat MSU, and they are riding high after their win over Nebraska; but they have two other games before the Spartans roll into town. Chances are, that game won't be important; but the possibility of it being a big game still lingers.

Now I want to move on to the teams I've focused on. I have nine teams (Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois) that have a shot at making noise down this crucial stretch of Big Ten play. Eight of the twelve Big Ten teams are bowl-eligible, and it is still possible for ten teams to get the necessary six wins if Northwestern and Purdue can win two of their three final games. Here are the current standings. These standings are based solely on conference records and show leaders based on head-to-head records.

Legends Division
Michigan State 7-2 (4-1)
Nebraska 7-2 (3-2)
Iowa 6-3 (3-2)
Michigan 7-2 (3-2)
Northwestern 4-5 (2-4)
Minnesota 2-7 (1-4)

Leaders Division
Penn State 8-1 (5-0)
Ohio State 6-3 (3-2)
Wisconsin 7-2 (3-2)
Purdue 4-5 (2-3)
Illinois 6-3 (2-3)
Indiana 1-9 (0-6)

In the final three weeks of Big Ten play, I have highlighted the eleven most important games. There's four games in weeks eleven and twelve and three games in week thrirteen that I'm going to key on. I'm going to show you matchups and make some predictions for week 11. My key games for weeks twelve and thirteen will be shown in this post, but I'm going to hold off on write-ups for those games in case my predictions are entirely off. As the season's end draws near, I will keep this blog series (The B1G Mess) going.

The records shown beside the team will reflect their current conference record.

Week 11

Nebraska 3-2 @ Penn State 5-0

Burkhead's Tough to Tackle

Everyone knows about the drama at PSU right now and is eager to see how their team will respond when a tough Nebraska team visits Happy Valley in this cross-divisional matchup. Both teams are fighting for Big Ten Championship births, but the big difference is that Penn State can afford to lose this game if they win out. I look for an emotional game at Beaver Stadium, and I think that the Huskers will rebound from their shocking loss to Northwestern to beat PSU. Penn State has the tools to beat Nebraska, but a lack of focus caused by the scandal is not good when facing a non-traditional offense that can score on any play. In the end, Nebraska pulls through.

Michigan State 4-1 @ Iowa 3-2

Sparty Has Bad History with Iowa

Iowa controls their own destiny, as does Michigan State. This game is huge for the Legends Division, and we all remember what Iowa did to MSU last year when they got off to a 37-0 start and ended up winning 37-6. This time it's at Iowa where the Hawkeyes are 6-0 this year. Michigan State's only road win came at Ohio State, and like that game; Coach Mark Dantonio cut players off from talking to the media during this week of preparation. A win by Iowa could make the Iowa/Nebraska game in week thirteen the decision-maker for the Legends Division. A win by MSU would leave the Spartans with only Indiana and Northwestern to beat to win the Legends Division Title. I think that MSU wants this game badly, but in the end, Iowa's pink locker room softens up the Spartans; and the Hawkeyes roll in another big win over Sparty.


Ohio State 3-2 @ Purdue 2-3

Herron Leads the Buckeyes

Purdue isn't in the running for the Big Ten title like the Buckeyes are, but this mini rivalry could give the Boilermakers the boost they need to become bowl eligible. The Buckeyes running game should dominate this game as Purdue's D-line has injury issues, and the Boilers struggle against the run. It'll be interesting to see how Purdue's offense attacks the Buckeye D because the secondary has struggled at times this year, and the Boilermakers have the skill players on the edge to take advantage of Buckeye mistakes. John Simon and Co. could and should register another huge game as they shut down the new-found Purdue ground attack, and I look for the Buckeyes to pull through in convincing fashion.

Michigan 3-2 @ Illinois 2-3

Denard Will Run on Illinois

Both of these teams are all but out of the Big Ten race, but the winner of this game could carry some momentum on in the last two weeks of Big Ten play in which both teams have big games. Michigan is trying to prove that they aren't the Wolverines of the past that will flop in the last half of the season. Illinois is trying to prove that they are the Fighting Illini of earlier this season that started 6-0 before going on this three game skid. Illinois is tough at home, but the Wolverines, under 1st year Head Coach Brady Hoke, will look to play solid defense and use their running attack to score points and eat the clock. This game saw both teams score in the 60's as they went to triple overtime a year ago. I wouldn't look for a high-scoring game. In the end, I think Michigan gets good play from it's defense and pulls off a rare road victory.

Standings after week 11.

Legends
Nebraska 8-2 (4-2)
Iowa 7-3 (4-2)
Michigan State 7-3 (4-2)
Michigan 8-2 (4-2)
Northwestern 5-5 (2-4)
Minnesota 2-8 (1-5)

Leaders
Penn State 5-2 (5-1)
Ohio State 7-3 (4-2)
Wisconsin 8-2 (4-2)
Purdue 4-6 (2-4)
Illinois 6-4 (2-4)
Indiana 1-9 (0-6)


These results set up for some very good week twelve and thirteen matchups. Right now, the cross-divisional games are just as important as the divisional games. With five 2 loss teams, one 1 loss team, and one undefeated team heading into Week 11; everyone is scrambling for wins; and PSU is the only team whose season doesn't completely change with a loss. Everyone wants to stay in the race for the championship. These games will be heated, and rivalries add fuel to the fire as the Big Ten season's end draws near. Winners will carry momentum onto next week where more drama awaits, and losers will fight the odds to rebound. Memories will be made in this season that has already proven to be memorable.

My Week 12 Predictons:

Penn State 5-1 @ Ohio State 4-2
*Winner would take Leaders Division lead. OSU - W

Wisconsin 4-2 @ Illinois 2-4
*If Illinois beat UM, this game would be meaningful. Wisconsin - W

Nebraska 4-2 @ Michigan 4-2
*UM is undefeated at home, and 2 wins by Nebraska would lead to a big week 13 matchup against rival Iowa. Nebraska - W

Iowa 4-2 @ Purdue 2-4
*If Iowa beat MSU, a win in this game would help keep them atop the Legends Division and allow the following Iowa @ Nebraska game decide the Legends Division Winner. Iowa - W


My Week 13 Predictions:

Iowa 5-2 @ Nebraska 5-2
*Game would decide the Legends Division Champion. Nebraska - W.
Penn State 5-2 @ Wisconsin 5-2
*PSU would be coming off a 2 game losing streak, and if OSU lost to UM; this would decide the Leaders Division Champion. Wisconsin - W.
Ohio State 5-2 @ Michigan 4-3
*If OSU wins, they go win the Leaders Division. Michigan wants to beat OSU so bad. OSU - W.

Legends Division Champion - Nebraska
Leaders Division Champion - Ohio State

Big Ten Championship Game

Buckeyes Would Love Another Shot at Huskers

An Offensive Identity Would Make a Difference

There will be at least a "The B1G Mess" Part II and III in the following weeks which will build off of this post but reflect the updating standings. Stay tuned!