The Board Breakdown – Ohio State (2-0) at Miami (Fla.) (0-1)
Saturday September 17, 2011 (7:30 pm ESPN)
Weather: 89/77 30% Rain
Last week I picked OSU to cover the spread (19 points which later was 18 points), and then I started to think as the suspensions were announced to continue through at least last weekend’s game that maybe I should pull back. I knew Toledo was going to be good, but I thought OSU would pull away in the end. What really hurt The Buckeyes was the play of the OL. The running game was weak, and the passing game was relatively ineffective after the first drive while watching Joe Bauserman (#14) throw the ball away time-after-time. That strategy allowed Toledo to keep fresh on defense, and that’s why OSU didn’t end up pulling away in the end…or at least it didn’t help. OSU is a team that has to win the time of possession battle this year to be its best because they are not a quick striking team, so short TOP means that they aren’t sustaining drives. I really wanted to change my prediction to us not covering the spread. I was thinking more like a 28-17 game rather than my 38-13, but I stuck with it and was wrong. The plus is that we still got the win and move on to game 3 with an undefeated record. I’m going to try this prediction thing again, and I think it will help that I know a little more about Miami than I did Toledo, so here goes…
Miami’s O vs. Ohio State’s D
Passing: It would have been nice to get Travis Howard (#7) back last week, but the good news is that he’s back now; and it might be very much needed with Miami returning Travis Benjamin (#3) to action after his own suspension. Dominic Clarke (#5) and Bradley Roby (#25) have played well in his absence, but the speedy Benjamin will need some personal attention that Howard would love to give. WR Allen Hurns (#1) is another dreadlocked speedster that the Buckeyes will need to keep an eye on, and the play of Roby and Clarke, thus far, leads me to believe it shouldn’t be a problem, but that’s not even mentioning returning starter LaRon Byrd (#2). Miami also returns Jacory Harris (#12) from suspension for his first games of this 2011 season and his senior year. Last year against OSU, Harris threw for 232 yards and a TD but also had 4 pick’s that helped OSU seal the 36-24 victory. Harris is streaky, and he’s either pretty good or really bad. This boils down to the pressure applied by the defense. This year’s OSU D is obviously very different from last year’s squad, and the Buckeyes are still seeking leaders and stability on defense; but John Simon (#54) seems to be stepping up into that role. His play will be crucial to the success of the silver bullet defense against the Hurricanes. Nathan Williams (#43) will miss his 2nd game this season with a knee injury that will keep him out 4 more weeks, and this is a huge loss for OSU’s pass rush. Last week J.T. Moore (#50) filled in for Williams and will be expected to fill those shoes once again, and Moore will have his chance to make plays this week against the Hurricane offense. Miami’s OL lost a couple starters (1 grad and 1 inj), but they have made adjustments; and all 5 starters have multiple starts. They have a good RT in Washington (#72), but their LT and RG were expected to be backups before the season started; so look for Simon to take advantage of the weaker LT. OSU’s DB’s have played relatively well thus far, but a few key breakdowns last week allowed Toledo to hit some big plays. Travis Benjamin is speedy, but the Buckeyes seem to have more of a problem with quick passes rather than downfield plays. The good news is that this can be fixed, and Miami is more of a drop-back style passing team that plays into OSU’s strengths on defense up front and in the secondary. Moeller still has been quiet through the start of this year, but it’s because he’s not making huge plays like Buckeye fans are used to; and there’s only so much you can do when the ball is not being thrown your way. Once again, this could be another huge week for the Buckeye DL.
My Key Matchup (MIA Passing): OSU’s DE’s vs. Miami’s OT’s
*The pressure on Harris could be the difference in Miami being an efficient passing team or being a turn-over machine. Look for some stunting from the Buckeyes to try to confuse Harris as it seemed to work in 2010. They will have to do something to keep the pressure on Harris without the rush from Williams. Simon’s play will need to be top-notch, and Moore will need to play at a high level. The need to get pressure on Harris is huge, and the Bucks would love to do it without bringing LB’s into the mix on a consistent basis.
Rushing: Ohio State has done quite well against the rush so far this year holding Akron to 35 yards and Toledo to 46 yards. Miami has starters back at C and LG, but OSU should once again play strong against the run. Miami’s Lamar Miller (#6) is a much better RB than the Buckeyes have seen thus far. He’s a quick guy with a good burst and decent size (5-11 212). Miller had the big kick return for a TD last year against OSU but didn’t see action in the backfield. Miami does have some big OL as they’re about ¾ the size of Wisconsin’s OL, which is still huge, and that size has given OSU problems in the past. Miami ran quite a few zone read plays against Maryland where Miller hit the hole with authority, so the key in the run game is clogging the middle; stretching the play; and allowing the Buckeye LB’s to run to the ball carrier. The spread attack works in OSU’s favor when it comes to the running game, but Miami will also line up in the I-formation. The effectiveness of Miami’s passing will make a big difference in their running game, but look for this to be a big test for the OSU DL and LB’s.
My Key Matchup (MIA Running): Johnathan Hankins (#52) and Garrett Goebel (#53) vs. Miami’s OL.
*You might as well throw Michael Bennett (#63) into this mix as well because the big freshman will start getting more and more reps as the season goes on. I like OSU’s odds here as Hankins takes up a lot of space, but the big factor is that they play gap-control defense while keeping the Miami OL off the Buckeye LB’s. Hankins, Goebel, and Bennett don’t have to make a ton of plays in the backfield to be successful in this game; but do pay attention to these guys, especially late in the game, if Miami lines up in the I-formation because their success will tell you a lot about this game. The speed at LB will be nice in this game, and I would look for Etienne Sabino (#6) to make a bunch of tackles.
Ohio State’s O vs. Miami’s D
Rushing: Ohio State returns a few players on offense that should help with their attack and versatility, but Miami also returns 2 crucial starters on defense in LB Sean Spence (#31) and DT Marcus Forston (#99). The Buckeye OL has been suspect early in the year specifically in the run game, but Corey Linsley (#71) returns after a few games of suspension and will add to the rotation at RG behind Marcus Hall (#79). The Buckeyes return projected starting RB Jordan Hall (#7) who will probably also see reps at the slot position which should compliment the power game that Carlos Hyde (#34) brings. Jaamal Berry (#4) is expected to get a few carries against Miami as well, but Hyde and Hall will be the featured guys. Berry had a big run against the Canes last year and could be a breakaway threat, but he doesn’t want to rush his return from his nagging hamstring injury. If he is ready then I would expect some excitement from him. Spence is great at running down plays that stretch too wide, and Miami has solid DT’s in the middle; so it will be interesting to see how the Bucks scheme for the two of them. I would look for OSU to run isolations on Miami’s smaller LB’s (avg. 222 lbs) with 250 lb fullback Zach Boren (#44), and I would also expect off-tackles while trying to down-block on the OLB’s while getting outside the DT’s. Braxton Miller (#5) should see time at QB and will be utilized much like Pryor was as a Frosh but with more ability to pass the ball which makes him dangerous. OSU will use bootlegs to get him on the run, but the primary runners in this game need to be Hyde and Hall.
My Key Matchup (OSU Running): OSU’s Guards vs. Miami’s DT’s.
*Miami returns both DT starters, but Regis (#54) and Forston are listed as interchangeable players at one DT spot with Junior Darius Smith (#98), who weighs 360 lbs, listed at the other. This matchup is more crucial than on the flip side of the ball because OSU doesn’t have a QB that is known to have the ability to pick apart a defense where Miami’s Harris has shown flashes.
Passing: Miami is starting some inexperienced guys at DE which should be an interesting matchup with OSU’s tackles, especially true Frosh Andrew Norwell (#78). OSU will play both QB’s this week, but Bauserman is definitely not going to be on the run much; so pocket protection will be necessary. The Miami defensive backfield would be stronger with Ray-Ray Armstrong (#26) on the field, but the Canes have made adjustments without the suspended safety on the field. Their starting four features returning starters FS Vaughn Telemaque (#7) and CB turned SS Jo Jo Nicolas (#29). The CB’s have little game experience but have been in the system awhile. These guys were taken advantage of early in the Maryland game, and OSU has the ability to throw those quick passes especially with Hall at slot; so bubble screens are a definite possibility this week. Those screens would help keep pressure off the QB, but the Buckeye receivers need to get up field quickly to take the Miami LB’s out of the picture. Philly Brown (#10) will not be playing this week, but Chris Fields (#80) had a game-changing play last week that should give him some confidence; and Verlon Reed (#9) has looked good so far. Devin Smith (#15) will also see the field this week and looks to be solid. Don’t forget about TE Jake Stoneburner (#11) because he could have a game even bigger than his game against Akron. Miami’s LB’s, CB’s, and SS average a height of only about 6 ft tall. Last year, Brandon Saine picked a touchdown pass off Spence’s helmet. T.Y. Williams (#18) height could also be useful in this game if OSU decides to call on him. The Buckeye WR’s will keep those Cane DB’s busy, throw Jordan Hall at slot and/or coming out of the backfield; and it’ll be easy to forget where Stoneburner has ventured off to. Lets just hope that the OL gives the QB’s some time.
My Key Matchup (OSU Passing): Jake Stoneburner vs. Miami LB/DB’s.
*As I listed above, Stoney could be hard for Miami to matchup with; and it helps that Bauserman has built chemistry with the TE. If Bauserman/Miller spread the ball around then I would expect for #11 to have a solid performance.
Special Teams
MIA Ret: Special teams were big in this game last year otherwise Miami wouldn’t have been close to competing with the Buckeyes as they put 14 points up just on returns. OSU looks like they’re covering returns better, but they will have a tough challenge ahead of them this weekend in Miami. Drew Basil (#24) needs to get more height on his kickoffs than he did last year, but his kicks looked a little better in the first few games. Ohio State has talked about switching punt formations back to the traditional style as the “Purdue style” has caused many issues since its implimentation. Miller and Benjamin will need to be contained this time around.
OSU Ret: Chris Fields had a big…no HUGE…punt return last week, and Jordan Hall returns this week; but even though Hall was expected to be the starter going into the season I would expect Fickell to keep Fields back there while Hall and Berry return kicks. This will help keep Hall’s legs fresh throughout the game.
FG: Miami’s kicker Jake Wieclaw (#40) has done something that Drew Basil has not…he made a FG. Wieclaw is 1 of 1 on kicking FG’s this year as he made a 30 yarder against Maryland. Basil is 0 for 2 on his kicks which are both from 40+ yards. Basil has a big leg but has struggled with his aim this year. Last year Basil’s big leg got a couple FG’s blocked which doesn’t give us Buckeye fans much confidence when kicking FG’s. I would love for Basil to light it up this game and give him some confidence. Both kickers are perfect on XP’s (Wieclaw 3/3, Basil 9/9).
Summary and Prediction
Both teams that hit the field this weekend will most likely look very different from what they did in the opening week(s) of this season. There’s no more holding out. Both new coaches want to win to get the fans behind them. Miami fans still want revenge for the 2003 NC game. There’s quite a few players on OSU’s team from the Miami area. The game will be heated, and points should be scored. The two things that determine the outcome of this game is the pressure on Harris and the running game of OSU. I see Harris having a pretty strong performance, and I think OSU’s run game will be better than last week but not quite what we need it to be. I hope the game doesn’t come down to FG’s, so that means OSU has to finish drives and be more aggressive with playcalling and execution. My call…OSU 21-MIA 17
