Wednesday, September 7, 2011

The Board Breakdown - Toledo @ Ohio State

Toledo (1-0) at Ohio State (1-0)
Saturday, September 10, 2011


I’m not going to tell you about the history of the two teams, the coaches, or last year’s stats.  I want to key in on specific match-ups and/or players as I do these pre-game write-ups throughout the season.   These will be better as we play better teams and the match-ups are a little more intense, but until then...


Toledo’s O vs. Ohio State’s D

Toledo will use a two QB system that have similar attributes as OSU’s QB’s.  It seems as if these QB’s play a similar role in the offense, too.  Owens (#2) is the mobile guy while Dantin (#4) is the passer.  It seems that Dantin will see the field the most, but don’t be surprised if UT tries to throw Owens in early in the game to see who will have more success especially since these QB's both started multiple games a year ago.

Ohio State shouldn’t struggle to stop UT’s RB Thomas (#24) even though he’s coming off a game where he rushed just 9 times for 115 yds and a TD.  OSU is just bigger and stronger up front.  Toledo is still breaking in two new starters on the OL including a redshirt Frosh at center.  Ohio State’s defensive line needs to live up to their hype and stuff the run.  They really need to get used to being called on every week as the cupcake games are about to be over for the year.  I think Garrett Goebel (#53) needs to have a good game, but Nathan Williams (#43) could be an impact player off the edge.

Toledo’s passing game is a little more dangerous than their running game with Page (#12), Reedy (#11), and Illinois transfer Cordale Scott (#3) lining up at WR.  Page put up great numbers last year, but it seems that he will be the first WR to be stranded on Howard Island as Travis Howard (#7) should return to starting duty this week.  The keys to these matchups are how well Roby (#25), Clarke (#5) and especially Moeller (#26) cover the other WR’s.  Even with the UT experience, I expect OSU’s DB’s to play quite well.  Roby will be happy to have Howard back because now the ball will be thrown his way.  I’m sure Moeller will be used quite a bit in this game, and hopefully; he’ll return to the impact player he was at the start of last year after a slow start to this year.  I would assume that UT would plan on throwing quite a few quick passes, such as bubble screens, to try to take OSU’s pass rush out of the game; but if not; the DL needs to do a much better job rushing than they did a week ago.  I think Moeller really needs to have a good game, but that's assuming that Howard is the lock-down guy that everyone says he is.

Overall, you have to give the advantage to OSU’s silver bullets.  I expect a little more intensity out of the defense this week.   Toledo has never even scored on OSU (2 meetings, 87-0), which will most likely change after this week; but I would love to see the shut-out streak to continue.


Ohio State’s O vs. Toledo’s D

Toledo’s defense returns all of their starters from last year with the exception of one DT and their weak side LB.  They still have 8 seniors and 3 juniors lining up on defense.  This is an experienced group, and OSU will have to play well to score points.

It seems as if Bauserman (#14) has settled in quite well at QB, but Miller (#5) will still be used as needed.  I’m wondering if Miller takes that first drive in for 6, would he have seen far more first half action.  I really hope he wants to get that starting spot even if he doesn't take it for awhile, but his actions on the sideline last week have many questioning how ambitious he is.  I do, however, like the role that both QB’s are playing right now as long as Bauserman continues to get comfortable and Miller continues to grow.  I thought Miller’s mechanics looked much better than Pryor’s ever did.  He had zip on the ball, and his short passes were mostly on point.  Bauserman’s throws seemed a bit like Pryor’s when he was starting out.  He seemed to wait until the receiver was completely open before throwing the ball, and this is something that’s going to have to change.  It’s great that he’s finding the open guy, but at some point he’s going to have to put some trust in his abilities and take more risk on throws because defenses will eventually get pressure on him, and I don't think he can rely on his scrambling abilities too much.  I thought both of the QB’s made good decisions when they did play, but I would look for Miller to start getting a little more playing time early in the game.

RB this week should be interesting to watch with the return of Jordan Hall (#7) and maybe Jaamal Berry (#4).  Before I get too far in, I want to point out how important Zach Boren (#44) is.  This guy is a great fullback, and much like an offensive lineman; his efforts go unrecognized.  Getting back to RB, Carlos Hyde (#34) looked good last week as the feature back and should be the power back all season.  Hall was supposed to be the starter, so who knows what will be on the field this week.  I would love to see Hall/Berry beside Miller in the spread package.  I think they will add a dimension that Hyde doesn’t have when we are running the spread.  I also think Hall would fit great at slot when we do run our power package with Hyde in the backfield.  It’s always good to have guys on the field who know what to do with the football in their hands.  Rod Smith (#2), to me, has the build and features to be a great back.  I don’t think that is going to happen this year though.  He looked uncomfortable with the ball and seemed to seek contact rather than trying to find the holes.  I love the physical style of play, but you have to be looking for 6 when you can get it; and I don't think he's expanded his vision to include the endzone until we are inside the 5 yard line. The fumble hurts too, but let’s not forget Beanie had the same problem as a Frosh; and look how good he turned out to be.  The good news is that we won’t NEED to use Smith when we have Hall, Berry, and Hyde all back there; and that’s not mentioning Herron (#1) upon his return.  The Buckeye OL should dominate this week which will give our RB's room to run.  Toledo isn't huge up front, but they do bring back experience; and they got pressure last week which forced turnovers.  I think the key here is how well Andrew Norwell (#78) handles the UT DE's.

The WR position is something that scared the crap out of me heading into the season, and now I couldn’t be more excited. Corey Brown (#10) and Verlon Reed (#9) look to be the next group of big name WR’s to come out of OSU.  Both have great athletic ability, and as long as the QB’s are getting time; these guys will be reeling in some passes.  We can’t talk about OSU’s receivers without mentioning the catch from last week.  Even Spencer (#16) showed great athleticism on his one-handed snag.  Devin Smith (#15) has been getting all kinds of hype through camp and looks to be another early contributor. T.Y. Williams (#18) dropped on the depth chart due to a bad case of butterfingers in camp but looked good in the opener while catching a couple of rockets from Miller.  The height of Williams would be great to utilize if he can get those hands to work.  I have been excited about Chris Fields (#80) ever since seeing his high school highlight film, and he looks to be a steady contributor as well.  Jake Stoneburner (#11) had a career and historic game last week and needs to continue to step up through this season.  He gives defense all kinds of matchup problems.  Toledo returns all of their DB’s from last year, and all of them are Seniors.  This won’t be the OSU receivers toughest test of the year, but it will be more of a test than last week; and passing this test will show a little growth out of this young group of WR’s.  I think Stoneburner will have another solid performance as he continues to make D-coordinators question who to cover him.  One of the WR's will step up in the next few weeks, and my guess says that Brown could be streaky; but Reed seems to have great potential.

Special Teams
It appears as though OSU is still having troubles kicking FG’s.  This is something that needs to be fixed ASAP, and that all boils down to the leg of Drew Basil (#24).  Ohio State will have to do their best at covering kicks and punts to keep the dynamic Page from being a thorn in our side.  Toledo has a good kicker, and their punter had two kicks (38 yrd avg) that were both fair-caught.

Overview
Toledo got 5 turnovers in week 1 from NH (2 int/3 fumb) and gave up none.  OSU gave up a fumble and intercepted a pass. Toledo won’t get the ball handed to them this week, but I fully expect them to give OSU some trouble in the beginning. Toledo is 6-8 vs ranked opponents, and OSU is aware of this; so there’s no looking ahead to Miami for OSU.  I expect the game to be close for awhile, but Ohio State is a 19 point favorite; and I expect them to cover the spread with solid defensive play and a key breakout performance on offense from whoever takes the most reps at RB...my guess is Hall.

OSU – 38
UT - 13

Go Bucks!